When filling out a bracket, people always try to find the rhyme or reason as to why a team will win the National Title. There are metrics, mascots, money, etc. influencing every game picked. The goal is to find the qualities that makes today’s champion.
We start with 68 teams…
- Seeds to Make a National Championship Game
Since the NCAA Tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, only a No. 1-8 seed has made a NCAA Tournament final. So, we will eliminate all of the No. 9-16 seeds from title contention.
Farewell… Michigan State, TCU, Texas A&M, Northwestern, Colorado, Nevada, Boise State, Colorado State, Drake, Virginia, New Mexico, Oregon, NC State, Duquesne, James Madison, Grand Canyon, McNeese State, UAB, Yale, Samford, College of Charleston, Vermont, Akron, Morehead State, Colgate, Oakland, Western Kentucky, South Dakota State, Long Beach State, Saint Peter’s, Longwood, Stetson, Montana State, Howard, Grambling State, Wagner
32 teams remain… - Streaks (The Losing Kind)
Since the 2000-01 season, every eventual National Champion headed into the dance having a losing streak of 3 games or less at some point during that season. The losing streak average was roughly 1.5 games.
Farewell… Wisconsin, Mississippi State
30 teams remain… - Streaks (The Winning Kind)
Since the 2000-01 season, every eventual National Champion headed into the dance with a 7+ game win streak at some point during that season. Yes, a team only needs to win 6 games in a row to lift the trophy, but 7 is the crucial number in this scenario. The average win streak was roughly 13 games.
Farewell… Iowa State, Illinois, Creighton, Kentucky, Alabama, Florida, Texas
23 teams remain… - The Unlucky 5 Seeds
Let’s just include the seeds who have actually won the National Title (we know No. 9-16 seeds are already out of the picture). Since 1985, a No. 5 seed has never won the National Championship Game.
Farewell… Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State
20 teams remain… - Opponent Points Per Game
Since 2000-01, every National Champion has allowed 72 or less points per game for the season. The average was 65.2 points per game.
Farewell… Arizona, Florida Atlantic
18 teams remain… - Offensive Rebounds Per Game
Since 2000-01, every National Champion has averaged at least 7.9 offensive rebounds per game for the season. The average was 11.0 offensive rebounds per game.
Farewell… Marquette, Kansas, Dayton
15 teams remain… - Losses
Since 2000-01, every National Champion has had 9 or fewer losses in the season they won it all. The average was roughly 5 losses.
Farewell… Baylor, BYU, Texas Tech, Clemson, Nebraska
WE HAVE REACHED THE FINAL 10 TEAMS
UConn, Houston, Purdue, North Carolina, Tennessee, Auburn, Duke, South Carolina, Washington State, Utah State - Bonus: The Slightly Ambitious Narrow Down
Since 1985, a top 4 seed has won the National Championship Game 35 out of 38 times. Exceptions: 1985 Villanova (8 seed), 1988 Kansas (6 seed), 2014 UConn (7 seed).
Farewell… South Carolina, Washington State, Utah State
THE SEVEN TEAMS
UConn, Houston, Purdue, North Carolina, Tennessee, Auburn, Duke
Is it possible these teams do not end up winning the National Title? Of course, they call it March Madness for a reason. But, it would take an anomaly for it to happen. So, if you pick any one of these 7 (or 10) suggested teams, you should feel pretty good about the potential results.
Thank you for reading.
Spencer Speaks Sports 